Reading and exploiting player types

GTO is your default, but money is made by *deviating* against players who don't play GTO. To deviate, you need a label. Within a few orbits, slot every opponent into a 2x2 grid: how often they play hands (loose/tight) and how aggressively (passive/aggressive).

• The Nit (tight-passive): folds a lot, only bets when strong. Pays you off rarely but bluffs almost never.
• The Calling Station (loose-passive): calls too much, raises too little. The single most profitable player at the table — for value.
• The TAG (tight-aggressive): the good regular. Plays a sensible range and applies pressure. Respect them; pick smaller spots.
• The Maniac / LAG (loose-aggressive): raises and barrels constantly. High variance — your edge comes from letting them bluff into your strong hands.

You don't need a HUD. Two data points are enough to start: did they limp or raise preflop, and did they fire a second barrel? Update the label as you go.

A cold-call (flatting a raise with players still to act) is only profitable when you can realize equity. *Who raised* matters as much as your cards.

• Flat wider vs. a Nit's open only when you have position and a hand that flops well — suited connectors, suited aces, pocket pairs set-mining. Their range is so strong that you're rarely 3-betting for value, but a Nit will check-fold flops they miss, letting you steal.
• Punish a Maniac differently: don't flat junk hoping to outplay them. Tighten your cold-call to hands that dominate their wide barreling range (KQ, AJ+, 99+) and let them keep firing. Flatting 76s vs. a maniac just bloats pots out of position.
• Avoid the multiway trap: cold-calling invites the blinds and the original raiser into a multiway pot where your speculative hand needs to *hit hard* to continue. With a Calling Station already in, flatting small pairs and suited cards behind is great — implied odds soar. Against aggressive fields, prefer 3-bet or fold.

Heuristic: if your plan after calling is fuzzy, you should probably 3-bet or fold instead.

Your c-bet and barreling frequency should swing hard based on the label.

• Vs. Nits: c-bet small (~25-33% pot) and give up cheaply when called — a Nit who continues has it. But on scary runouts (A or K turn after they call a low flop), a second barrel of ~half pot folds out their pairs. They overfold to the threat of a big hand.
• Vs. Calling Stations: stop bluffing. Bet bigger for value (66-100% pot) with top pair and up, and check-back your air. The mistake players make is barreling a station off nothing on the turn — they call with second pair and a backdoor. Thin value is the whole game here; bet a hand like KJ on a J-high board three streets.
• Vs. TAGs: play close to balanced. Mix sizings, defend your checking range, and don't bluff into the one opponent who is also reading *you*.
• Vs. Maniacs: check-call and let them bluff. Trap with strong hands instead of raising and folding out their air. A check-raise should be reserved for the nuts or a genuine semi-bluff, because a maniac will jam over your raise.

Sizing leaks reveal hand strength faster than any face. Bank these patterns:

• Small bet, big hand? Recreational players often bet *small* with monsters (to "keep you in") and *big* with bluffs or one-pair hands they want to protect. A surprise overbet from a passive player is frequently a draw or a marginal made hand begging you to fold — not the nuts.
• Insta-call = capped: a snap-call on the flop almost never contains a set or two pair (those raise or tank). It's a pair or draw. Fire the turn.
• The min-raise: from a passive player, a min-raise postflop is almost always the top of their range — a set or better. Believe it and fold your one-pair hands.

Apply the foldout test before every bluff: "What worse hand folds, what better hand calls?" Against a station the answer is *nothing folds* — so check. Against a Nit, *everything but the nuts folds* — so bet.

Player types shift as the money approaches, and you must adjust.

• Near the bubble, almost everyone becomes a Nit with their stack on the line. Steal relentlessly from medium stacks who can't risk busting — this is the highest-EV exploit in MTTs. Conversely, *don't* try to bluff the short stack who's committed; they'll call light.
• Big stacks become Maniacs by incentive — they can apply ICM pressure for free. Tighten your cold-calls and 3-bet-or-fold against a covering stack; flatting out of position bleeds chips you can't afford to gamble.
• Field reads beat individual reads at lower stakes: the pool is mostly loose-passive. Default to *more value betting, fewer bluffs, fewer fancy cold-calls* until a player proves they're a thinking reg.

A simple routine to turn observation into profit:

1. Orbit 1 — label. Watch showdowns. What did they show down, and how did they bet it? One revealed bluff or one revealed slow-play recalibrates everything.
2. Orbit 2 — test. Float a Nit's c-bet and see if they give up the turn. Make a thin value bet against a suspected station. Cheap experiments confirm the label.
3. Orbit 3 — exploit. Now lean in: over-fold to the Nit's aggression, never fold top pair to the station, trap the maniac.

Keep it lightweight. You're not solving the game — you're answering one question per opponent: *what does this player do too much, and how do I make them pay for it?*